The global new shipbuilding market was very active in the first half of 2024. The scarcity of shipyard berths and the expansion of shipbuilding capacity have become hot topics in the current new shipbuilding market. According to the statistics of newly signed orders, the order-taking rhythm so far this year is consistent with that of last year. However, in terms of perception, the order-signing rhythm of shipyards has accelerated, and the number of intention orders has increased; more small and medium-sized shipyards have begun to take orders, and the customer group has also shifted from leading shipowners to more small and medium-sized shipowners.
New Ship Prices - Rising at High Levels
Clarksons Research records that global shipbuilding capacity bottomed out in 2020, reducing by approximately 35% compared to the peak period in 2010. Although global shipbuilding capacity is expected to rebound and recover, it is projected that the capacity by the end of 2023 will increase by 11% compared to the end of 2020. However, shipyard berths remain tight, and some large shipyards have begun to sell berths for 2028/29. Against this backdrop, new ship prices continue to rise at high levels. As of the end of June, the Clarksons New Shipbuilding Price Index recorded 187, rising by 5% compared to the beginning of the year. In terms of nominal prices, it is approaching the same level as in 2008 and is only 2% away from the peak. Under the model of shipyard capacity supply and new ship order demand, Clarksons expects new ship prices to remain at high levels.
New Ship Activities - Booming
According to Clarksons Research statistics, global new ship orders in the first half of 2024 were on par with the same period last year, maintaining a very good order-signing rhythm. Considering the significant increase in order-signing volume in June, more orders will be retrospectively updated in July. By ship type, new shipbuilding orders for oil tankers continue to heat up, orders for LNG carriers remain strong driven by batch project investments, investment interest in small and medium-sized LPG carriers and other gas carriers has increased, benefiting from the booming freight market, the fleet replacement rhythm of container ships has accelerated. Although bulk carrier orders were slightly lower than expected, we expect that more orders from Japanese shipyards will be reported later.
Alternative Fuels - Continuous Development
With the successive promotion and entry into force of environmental protection regulations, investment in alternative fuel-powered ship orders continues. Clarksons Research statistics show that new ship orders for alternative fuel vessels in the first half of 2024 accounted for 44% of all new ship orders in the same period in terms of corrected gross tons. Currently, LNG remains the most widely used alternative fuel type, and the application ratio of LNG and methanol in new signed orders has widened again. Due to concerns of shipowners about the supply and price of green methanol fuel, the interest in methanol-powered ship orders has cooled compared to 2023. In addition, more shipowners choose to reserve alternative fuels to cope with future development flexibility.
Chinese Shipyards - Comprehensive Enhancement of Competitiveness
According to Clarksons Research statistics, in the first half of 2024, the global share of new ship orders from Chinese shipyards broke through 60% for the first time and ranked first in the world for the sixth consecutive year. The competitiveness of Chinese shipyards in the oil tanker field has further improved. The new ship orders totaled 231 vessels with a combined 20.04 million deadweight tons, accounting for more than 70% globally; they continue to dominate bulk carrier orders, having received a cumulative 174 vessels with a combined 15.39 million deadweight tons, accounting for over 90% globally; they maintain their leading position in container ships, and container ship orders have rebounded to 61 vessels with a combined 430,000 TEU, accounting for as high as 96% globally; their competitiveness in the gas carrier field has strengthened, receiving Q-Max LNG carriers, and more shipyards have developed the LPG ship type market. Gas carrier orders reached 43 vessels with a combined 6.28 million cubic meters, with the global share approaching 40% for the first time; Chinese shipyards also dominate orders for car carriers, receiving 26 out of 30 global car carrier orders; in addition, since 2020, the overseas market share of Chinese shipyards has gradually increased, and the order share from domestic shipowners has dropped to 24%.
Chinese Shipowners - Focus on Structural Changes
According to Clarksons Research statistics, new ship orders from Chinese shipowners were relatively stable in the first half of 2024, maintaining a global share of 14%. Chinese shipowners continue to lead global bulk carrier investment, accounting for 30% in terms of investment amount, of which approximately 33% were ordered by domestic leasing companies; investment in gas carriers dropped to third place, with a global share of 17%, lower than the investment amounts of Qatari and Greek shipowners; investment in oil tankers ranked third globally, less than half of the investment amount of Greek shipowners and slightly lower than that of Norwegian shipowners; investment in container ships further declined by 59%, with a global share of only 3%. Among global shipowner countries' investments, Greece has become the largest investor in the global new shipbuilding market for the second consecutive year. Since this year, Greek shipowners' investment in energy ship types has been very eye-catching.